Dry bulk shipping
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Dry bulk shipping carries the raw materials of industry — iron ore, coal, and grain above all, plus the “minor bulks” from bauxite to fertilizer — loose in the holds of bulk carriers. Measured in tonnes, it is the largest segment of seaborne trade.
The fleet
Bulk carriers are classed by deadweight: Handysize and geared Supramax/Ultramax ships serving smaller ports and varied cargoes; Panamax/Kamsarmax vessels prominent in grain and coal; and gearless Capesize ships of 150,000–210,000 DWT, purpose-built for the iron ore runs from Brazil and Western Australia to China, with a small class of even larger ore carriers (Valemax, up to 400,000 DWT) dedicated to Vale’s Brazil–Asia trade.
The purest shipping cycle
Dry bulk is the textbook competitive market: thousands of owners, undifferentiated ships, no alliances or conferences, and rates set voyage by voyage. The result is the industry’s starkest cycle. The China-driven supercycle of 2003–2008 took the Baltic Dry Index to nearly 11,800 and Capesize earnings above $200,000/day — then the financial crisis and a flood of newbuildings ordered at the peak produced a decade of oversupply, culminating in the BDI’s all-time low in February 2016. The cycle’s mechanics are structural: ships take two years to build and last twenty-five, so supply always answers demand late.
What moves the market
- Chinese demand — China imports the majority of seaborne iron ore and is the swing factor in coal; its property and steel sectors effectively set the Capesize market.
- Grain seasons and harvests — a geopolitically sensitive trade, as the Black Sea disruptions after 2022 showed.
- Congestion and disruption — port queues absorb fleet capacity and can rally rates independent of cargo volumes.
- The orderbook — the pace of newbuilding deliveries versus demolition of older ships.
Ownership is fragmented and heavily private, with Greek, Japanese, and Chinese interests the largest blocs. The segment faces the same decarbonization pressures as the rest of shipping, with the added twist that one of its staple cargoes — coal — is itself in structural decline.